Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue fell to $22.4M (vs. $76.5M YoY; $188.8M in Q1), driven by lapping 2024 Novartis tech-transfer revenue and reduced Pfizer collaboration revenue after removal of Phase 3 combo trials; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.84) vs. $(0.49) YoY .
Versus S&P Global consensus, ARVN posted an EPS beat (actual $(0.84) vs. $(0.89)) and a revenue miss (actual $22.4M vs. $34.4M), reflecting the expected step-down in collaboration revenue after 1H24 Novartis and plan changes with Pfizer (17 estimates each)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $861.2M; management reaffirmed runway into 2H 2028 as restructuring savings begin to flow through starting Q3 .
Regulatory catalyst: FDA accepted the NDA for vepdegestrant with a PDUFA action date of June 5, 2026 (first potential PROTAC approval); ARVN and Pfizer are renegotiating their collaboration economics with scenarios ranging from Pfizer retaining more economics to rights potentially returning to ARVN, which would then seek a new partner .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- FDA accepted the NDA for vepdegestrant; PDUFA June 5, 2026, underscoring a path to the first potential PROTAC approval .
- ARV-102 (LRRK2 degrader) showed blood-brain barrier penetration and >50% LRRK2 reduction in CSF at clinically achievable doses in healthy volunteers; patient dosing in PD is underway with initial patient data expected in 2H 2025 .
- Cost discipline: restructuring complete; CFO expects full cost-reduction benefits to start in Q3; cash runway reaffirmed into 2H 2028 .
What Went Wrong
- Collaboration revenue step-down: YoY revenue declined by $54.1M, driven by completion of 2024 Novartis tech transfer (-$45.6M), lower Pfizer ARV‑471 development plan revenue (-$6.8M), and Bayer termination (-$1.6M) .
- Strategic contraction in vepdegestrant combinations: first-line and second-line pivotal combo trials removed from the Pfizer plan in early 2025, reducing near-term combo optionality and related collaboration revenue .
- Leadership transition creates overhang: CEO John Houston plans to retire after a successor is appointed; he will remain Chairperson, but transition adds uncertainty to execution optics .

Financial Results

Income statement snapshot (chronological: oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)	76.5	188.8	22.4
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.49)	1.14*	(0.84)
R&D Expense ($M, GAAP)	93.7	90.8	68.6
G&A Expense ($M, GAAP)	31.3	26.6	25.3
Total Operating Expenses ($M)	125.0	—	93.9

Values retrieved from S&P Global: items marked with *.

Year-over-year margin comparison

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Net (Loss) Income ($M)	(35.2)	(61.2)
Net Income Margin %	(46.0%)	(273.2%)

Balance sheet liquidity

Metric	Dec 31, 2024	Jun 30, 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)	100.5	114.9
Marketable Securities ($M)	938.9	746.3
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($M)	~1,040	861.2

Non-GAAP operating metrics

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
R&D (Non-GAAP) ($M)	83.0	59.5
G&A (Non-GAAP) ($M)	20.4	20.2

Revenue drivers (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2024)

Driver	YoY Δ ($M)
Novartis license/asset agreements completed by 12/31/24	(45.6)
Pfizer ARV‑471 collaboration (plan changes removing trials)	(6.8)
Bayer collaboration termination (Aug 2024)	(1.6)

Estimate comparisons (S&P Global)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue Actual ($M)	59.2*	188.8*	22.4*
Revenue Consensus ($M)	62.8*	41.9*	34.4*
EPS Actual ($)	(0.63)*	1.14*	(0.84)*
EPS Consensus ($)	(0.96)*	(0.97)*	(0.89)*
# Estimates (Rev / EPS)	18 / 18*	17 / 15*	17 / 17*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Context and drivers

Sequential revenue declined as Q1 benefitted from revenue recognition mechanics tied to the reduction in the vepdegestrant program budget (higher percentage-of-completion revenue), which did not repeat in Q2 .
R&D fell YoY as vepdegestrant and ARV‑766 spend declined, partially offset by increased ARV‑102 and ARV‑806 investment; G&A fell on lower personnel/infrastructure and professional fees, partially offset by commercial-prep costs .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash runway	Multi‑year	Into 2H 2028 (post‑restructuring)	Into 2H 2028 reaffirmed	Maintained
Cost reductions timing	2025 phasing	Savings fully realized by Q4’25	Full benefit begins in Q3’25; restructuring complete	Pulled forward realization
Vepdegestrant NDA	U.S.	NDA submission planned/underway in 2025	FDA accepted; PDUFA June 5, 2026	Upgraded to accepted with PDUFA date
Vepdegestrant development plan	Global	Removal of 1L & 2L combo Phase 3s aligned with Pfizer (Q1)	Continuing to rework collaboration economics with Pfizer; exploring partner if rights return	Strategic collaboration renegotiation underway
ARV‑102 (LRRK2)	2H 2025–2026	50% CSF degradation target; SAD HV data at AD/PD; start PD SAD/MAD	Final HV SAD/MAD data 2H’25; initial PD SAD data 2H’25; MAD PD initiation 2H’25; PSP Ph1b in 1H’26	Timeline reaffirmed/clarified
ARV‑393 (BCL6)	2H 2025	Initial Ph1 data by YE’25	Preliminary clinical data 2H’25; preclinical combo with glofitamab 2H’25	Maintained with added combo milestone
ARV‑806 (KRAS G12D)	2025	IND safe‑to‑proceed; start Ph1 in 2H’25	Ph1 enrollment initiated; preclinical data from clinical‑stage program in 2H’25	Advanced to clinical; new 2H’25 update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Vepdegestrant regulatory path	Preparing for VERITAC‑2 readout; pre‑NDA meeting completed; planning 1L/2L combo Ph3 (later removed)	NDA submitted (Jun 6) and FDA accepted with PDUFA 6/5/26; collaboration economics under renegotiation	Positive regulatory momentum; strategic shift on collaboration
Collaboration with Pfizer	Initially broad 50/50 co‑dev/commercial; planned combos	Removal of combo trials makes 50/50 less attractive; scenarios include Pfizer retaining more economics or returning rights	Rebalancing economics; partner optionality
Cost structure/runway	Cash into 2027 (Q4); extended into 2H’28 post‑restructuring (Q1)	Restructuring complete; full benefits begin Q3; runway reiterated into 2H’28	Discipline sustained
ARV‑102 (LRRK2)	First‑in‑human data planned; >50% CSF degradation target	HV data show BBB penetration and target degradation; PD SAD complete; multiple-dose PD starting; 2H’25 readouts planned	Execution on neuro strategy
ARV‑393 (BCL6)	Preclinical combo data promising; Ph1 enrolling; 2025 data planned	Enrollment progressing; 2H’25 preliminary data; mechanistic rationale for bispecific combinations; aims for clean heme tox profile	Progressing to clinical signal
ARV‑806 (KRAS G12D)	IND safe‑to‑proceed; strong preclinical potency vs inhibitors/degraders	Ph1 initiated; preclinical differentiation reiterated (potency, resynthesis resistance); plan combos (EGFR, chemo)	From preclinical → clinical; competitive positioning
Leadership	—	CEO retirement planned; will remain Chair; formal search underway	Managed transition

Management Commentary

“The recent submission of a New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for vepdegestrant represents a truly significant first for Arvinas… the first ever new drug application submitted for a PROTAC.” — John Houston, CEO .
“Should the negotiations lead to [vepdegestrant] being returned… we are prepared to seek a party to commercialize and further develop [it].” — John Houston .
“ARV‑102… demonstrated blood-brain barrier penetration… and reduction of pathway biomarkers… ARV‑102 was generally safe and well tolerated with no serious adverse events.” — Company update .
“The announced restructuring is now complete and the full benefit in terms of cost reduction will be seen starting in the third quarter.” — Andrew Saik, CFO .
“Our whole process with the FDA has gone very smoothly… we haven’t seen [timeline] pressures yet with our interactions on [vepdegestrant].” — John Houston .

Q&A Highlights

Vepdegestrant collaboration economics: ARVN and Pfizer aligned on maximizing value; given removal of combo trials, 50/50 no longer makes sense; outcomes include Pfizer launching with greater economics or rights returning to ARVN, which would immediately seek a new partner; ARVN is not building out a salesforce and intends minimal market-prep spend near term .
LRRK2 program expectations: PD patients have higher baseline LRRK2; ARV‑102 aims to replicate >50% CSF degradation and demonstrate biomarker movement in MAD; management views degraders as superior to inhibitors on brain penetration and comprehensive target function removal .
BCL6 combos: Near-term goal is to establish monotherapy dose; high interest in combinations (e.g., bispecifics) given preclinical CD20 upregulation and potential synergy; clean heme toxicity profile emphasized .
KRAS G12D: Early Ph1 dose escalation with strong investigator interest; preclinical data suggest higher potency vs inhibitors and prior degraders and ability to overcome KRAS resynthesis; combination plans include EGFR inhibitors and chemotherapy .
FDA process/timelines: Interactions “excellent”; awaiting and then received NDA acceptance post-call, later disclosed with PDUFA date (June 5, 2026) .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 actual vs. S&P Global consensus: Revenue $22.4M vs. $34.4M* (miss); EPS $(0.84) vs. $(0.89)* (beat). 17 estimates each*. The shortfall reflects the non-recurring nature of 2024 Novartis revenue and reduced Pfizer plan scope; cost actions supported EPS vs. expectations. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Trailing quarters: Q1 2025 revenue $188.8M vs. $41.9M*; EPS $1.14 vs. $(0.97)* (significant beat tied to revenue recognition from Pfizer plan reduction). Q4 2024 revenue $59.2M vs. $62.8M*; EPS $(0.63) vs. $(0.96)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global .
Estimate implications: With collaboration plan changes and lapping Novartis, Street models likely shift lower on near-term revenue while focusing on opex trajectory and binary regulatory/collaboration catalysts into 2026 (PDUFA). Values retrieved from S&P Global .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Regulatory milestone secured: FDA accepted vepdegestrant NDA; PDUFA June 5, 2026—path to potential first PROTAC approval and a major platform validation event .
Collaboration optionality as a stock driver: Near-term outcome of Pfizer renegotiation (retain more economics vs. rights return to ARVN and re‑partner) is a major valuation swing factor; ARVN not investing to self-commercialize .
Operating leverage visible: Restructuring complete; savings to show up beginning Q3; runway into 2H 2028 supports pipeline without near-term financing .
Neuro upside case: ARV‑102 human BBB penetration and target degradation de‑risk mechanism; 2H 2025 PD data are a meaningful catalyst vs. LRRK2 inhibitor competitors .
Hem/Onc innovation breadth: ARV‑393 approaching initial clinical data with combo rationale (CD20 upregulation); ARV‑806 now clinical with preclinical differentiation vs. inhibitors/degraders .
Revenue modeling: Expect near-term collaboration revenue to remain below 2024 levels absent new BD; YoY headwinds from Novartis tech transfer completion and Pfizer plan adjustments already evidenced in Q2 .
Leadership transition monitored: CEO succession underway; Houston to remain Chairperson, reducing governance risk while a successor is recruited .

Additional Details and Data

Non-GAAP adjustments: Q2 2025 non-GAAP R&D was $59.5M (excludes $0.6M restructuring and $8.5M SBC); non-GAAP G&A was $20.2M (excludes $0.4M restructuring and $4.7M SBC) .
Cash flow context: 1H 2025 decrease in cash/securities of $178.2M primarily from cash used in operations ($177.0M) plus capex and minor debt repayment, partially offset by ESPP proceeds .
Vepdegestrant efficacy context: VERITAC‑2 showed a 2.9‑month median PFS improvement vs. fulvestrant in ESR1m patients; ITT PFS did not reach statistical significance; safety and tolerability favorable with low GI AEs .

Values retrieved from S&P Global: All items marked with *.

ARVINAS, INC. (ARVN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary